The forecast of the ruble exchange rate for April 2018
Experts: the forecast for the ruble exchange rate for April 2018 can be called positive. Many factors suggest that the domestic currency will retain its position with slight fluctuations. In the next three years, do not wait for a collapse or sharp jumps.
Analyst forecasts: dollar rate in Russia
A dollar for 62.4 rubles in Russia - such a forecast was made at the Higher School of Economics. The consensus forecast, according to which the American currency will reach this level by the end of 2020, was prepared with the participation of analysts from several banks and financial organizations. This review can be called positive, since in a document published by the Ministry of Economic Development the ruble will drop to 68.
The HSE noted the relative stability of the ruble over the three-year period, as the country's economy adapted to external shocks and sanctions. In this case, the weakening will occur at about 4% per year, synchronously with inflation.
|Period||US dollar rate|
|IV quarter of 2018||59.3 rubles|
|IV quarter of 2019||62.2 rubles|
|IV quarter of 2020||62.4 rubles|
Support the domestic currency and provide oil prices. According to the latest news, it is expected that in the designated period, black gold will trade at between $ 59-60 per barrel. Now it is $ 66, and at the beginning of the year its cost was $ 70 per barrel.
In the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the expected cost per barrel will be slightly above $ 40 in a three-year period. However, the document will be revised in April, as hydrocarbon prices fluctuate.
The forecast of Sberbank analysts has also changed. The updated rates are based on the baseline scenario of the cost of a barrel of Urals oil at $ 62. Sberbank believes that in 2018 the ruble / dollar exchange rate will be 58, and the next - 58.5. The forecast for inflation over the next three years remained the same - 4%.
Ministry of Finance and Euro
Last year, the Ministry of Finance of Russia attempted to stabilize the domestic currency through ruble interventions. Such measures were skeptically perceived by experts. Alexei Kudrin, who holds the post of head of the Center for Strategic Research, said that these actions will weaken the ruble: buying in large volumes creates artificial demand for it, thereby making the domestic currency weaker.According to the press service of the Ministry, in 2017, 829 billion rubles were spent to buy euros, pounds sterling and the US dollar in the domestic market. This year, the volume of purchases could grow to 2.8 trillion rubles.
According to Yulia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research, without interventions conducted by the ministry, the dollar would cost 52-53 rubles - that is, the chosen policy weakens the rate of the domestic currency by about three rubles. Tseplyaeva also said that in the coming years, the rate will remain stable and easing will occur synchronously with inflation, but in real terms, the ruble may strengthen.
Another forecast is made by Natalya Orlova, chief analyst at Alfa Bank, who believes that the ruble will weaken to 60 per dollar not from April 1, but by the end of the year. And by the end of 2020 - up to 65 rubles.
As for the other world currency, there is no independent ruble / euro exchange rate, it is always derivative EUR / USD and RUB / USD. In the first, there is now a weakening, which means that the euro / ruble, if it grows, is insignificant.
It is no secret that the Russian ruble depends on oil. However, there are limits below which it cannot fall. "The national currency rate has already tested the minimums of 2017-2018 for 3 times. around 55.60. <...> the ruble is tired of strengthening and is unlikely to see the dollar exchange rate significantly below this level“, - says Mikhail Altynov, who holds the position of investment director at Peter Trust. On the one hand, the speech of the head of the US Fed spurred the growth of the dollar, and on the other hand, the auctions of the Russian OFZs were positive and ruble debts continue to be of interest. In this regard, experts' forecasts suggest that if the dollar starts to grow, this increase will be slow, but it is unlikely that it will be able to cross the threshold below 56 rubles.