The forecast of the euro against the ruble in September 2018
Due to the economic instability and the slow rise in the national currency, citizens became interested in the dollar and euro exchange rates in September of this year. Many are going to save their savings in euros, which proved to be consistently high rates. Recently, experts gave a forecast that the euro-ruble rate for September 2018 will continue to grow. The corresponding information is confirmed by Sberbank of Russia. The ratio is affected by the global crisis and sanctions, so the future behavior of the monetary unit will depend on the pressure exerted by Western countries on the economy of the Russian Federation, the oil market and the development of the economy inside the country.
The euro is directly dependent on the value of the dollar, but is considered not as stable. Because of this, even the most experienced experts often refuse to give specific values. However, some of them are convinced that there will be an increase in September 2018.
The main factors that may affect the value of the euro to the ruble:
- sanctions applied by US and European governments;
- capital outflow from the Russian Federation;
- seasonal price increase;
- the instability of the value of "black gold";
- economic situation in the country (price increases, corruption, etc.).
Prerequisites for growth
Data in the industrial production of the European zone destroyed all expectations about the sustainability of the course. According to the monthly report of the statistical service of the European Union, industrial output grew by 4.0%, ahead of forecasts by 3.6%. Annual calculation showed a level of 1.3%, ahead of projected data by 1.1%. The situation can be affected by expectations at the ECB (Central Bank of Europe), which can provide generous monetary policy. While amid a falling dollar, the EUR / USD pair rose to 1.1489. The options support the euro exchange rate forecast for September 2018 with its further growth, but this is only in the near future.
Analysts say that at the end of the first autumn month of 2018 EUR will rise in price by 5-15 rubles. and will be 80-90 per unit. Among the most pessimistic forecasts from experts and economists, an increase in the euro will reach 100 rubles, which is unlikely.
Why do experts draw such conclusions? The main reason is the introduction of new United States sanctions against Russia since August 2018.
The British and American governments filed accusations against Russian intelligence services in a case involving the poisoning of Sergei Skrypal’s family with a nerve agent that occurred in the spring of 2018 in the British city of Salisbury. In addition, Russia is accused of failure to comply with a settlement agreement banning the use of chemical weapons. According to the new sanctions, the Russian Federation will be banned from selling goods related to national security, for example, electrical appliances, spare parts for the aviation industry, etc. Moscow denies all charges.
Important! Provided that Russia does not agree to the conditions imposed by the United States of America, the new restrictions will begin to apply at the end of autumn. This will adversely affect the price of the currency and will affect the decline in the Russian currency.
Due to the adoption of new sanctions, a significant decrease in RUB may occur, and foreign investors will simply leave, and there will be a massive outflow of Russian capital. In addition, even local businessmen are trying to withdraw their own funds abroad, and the citizens of the country keep their savings in foreign currency.Large risks and an unstable position of the Russian Federation on the world arena led to this.
All this affects the increase in foreign currency quotations and the strong weakening of the ruble position; therefore, while maintaining these trends, experts predict the value of the euro against the ruble in September 2018, which indicate an increase in the currency price to an average of 85 rubles. this month.
Also, the reduction in the cost per barrel of oil plays an important role in the position of the Russian currency at the world level, because the sale of oil and oil products is the main source of income for the state. With a decrease in quotations, the ruble may collapse. This will happen when raw materials are cheaper on the market, or additional Western sanctions will be imposed on the Russian Federation.
Important! If we take into account all these negative factors, then the most pessimistic scenario may occur and the European monetary unit will grow to 100 rubles. However, here the actions of the Russian government aimed at smoothing the situation are not taken into account.
Can we expect a decline in the value of the euro in September
Stabilization or reduction of the value of the European currency can only be if the Russian government takes immediate measures within the state and at the international level.If the outflow of capital from the Russian Federation continues, the Central Bank may proceed to mass interventions, but this will be possible only in a critical situation.
What else can lead to a decrease in EUR:
- Increased demand for domestic production.
- Rising prices for oil and petroleum products.
- Unpredictable factors, such as natural phenomena.
Experts are convinced that it will be possible to make a clear forecast for the decline of the European currency from 2019, and before that it will only grow.