The devaluation of the ruble in 2018
Recent events have shown: the devaluation of the ruble in 2018 will not take place. The Russian ruble feels confident against the backdrop of a losing US dollar, a booming economy and stable oil prices.
How real is a stable economy in Russia
In the next three years, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble will be stable. This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, Maxim Oreshkin, at a meeting of the Russian tripartite commission for regulating social and labor relations.
The minister noted that neither sanctions nor oil prices can affect the national currency. Other analysts have a similar opinion. Anna Kokoreva, Deputy Director of the Analytical Department of Alpari, is confident of strengthening the national currency: “In the second half of September and further until the end of the year, the ruble will continue to strengthen: there are all prerequisites for this».
Among the factors affecting the growth of the Russian ruble, the expert noted:
- economic growth.According to the results of the six months of 2017 in Russia, it was 1.5%;
- the inflation rate of 3.3% is a rather low indicator;
- high business activity in industry and services;
- stable oil prices;
- weakening of the US dollar.
If we say how real the ruble is strengthening, then the above points indicate a systematic recovery of the economy, which supports the domestic currency. Thus, economists predict rates: 56.5-57 rubles per dollar and 67-68 rubles per euro.
By the way, for retirees, this forecast indicates an increase in pensions. It is known that in the bill on the state budget for the next year, indexation is planned at the beginning of the year at the level of annual inflation. Currently, this document is being finalized in the departments (the relevant decree was made by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev), and after that will be considered in the State Duma.
Simple language about numbers
The policy pursued by the Central Bank of Russia makes it possible to call the domestic currency rate stable. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation responds satisfactorily about the rate of reduction of the budget deficit, while the Ministry of Economic Development expects the reduction of current account accounts to 0.4% of GDP by 2019, which will affect the ruble exchange rate.
According to the macro forecast prepared by the Ministry of Economy for 2018-2020, one should not expect a significant weakening of the ruble. In simple terms - the dependence of the domestic currency on oil prices has decreased. This confirms the comparison of the new forecast and the previous edition, made less than six months ago.
The average annual rate according to the Ministry of Economy (version of calculations from April 2017)
|The ruble exchange rate to the US dollar|
Previous versions of the forecast relied on the price of $ 40 per barrel of oil, but at the beginning of the year, black gold was trading at a price slightly less than $ 50. The latest version of the macroeconomic forecast was calculated at an average annual oil price of $ 49 per barrel, which means that the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar will be equal to 59.7 rubles.
Latest news: what can ordinary citizens expect?
According to the latest news, 59-62 rubles for one American dollar - this rate is predicted by the Ministry of Economy, provided that the cost of a barrel of oil remains at $ 50. The ministry also raised the forecast for expectations of GDP dynamics for a three-year period - an increase of 2.1-2.3% in 2018-2020 (1.5% in the April edition). Answering the question: “what can a simple citizen expect?”, Experts reassure with assurances of stabilization of the economic situation.Meanwhile, a year ago, making the forecast, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, denied the possibility of repeating a sharp depreciation of the ruble as it was three years ago, in 2014.