Forecast of experts on the economy in 2017
Experts are confident that at the end of 2017, Russia will face another financial crisis. Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin agrees with the forecasts of HSE regarding the rise of the country's economy in the next few years, the situation may not be so rosy.
After all, oil prices continue to fall and, if it continues like this, then literally in a year sovereign funds will become empty. This will lead to a further fall in the economy.
Two years of crisis
The forecast of the center for the development of HSE is based on sanctions imposed on the state, as well as on anti-sanctions. Thanks to them, there are three possible scenarios for the development of events in the coming years - everything depends on how the oil prices behave: negative (price per barrel - $ 50 to 2018 inclusive), optimistic (price for 2015-2018 will be 60, 70, 80, 90 dollars per barrel) and volatile (it is similar to the optimistic, only the price of oil can "jump" from more to less).
The Ministry of Economic Development, of course, hopes for a higher oil price, but still this fact will not help the growth of the country's economy.It will continue to deteriorate over the course of two years. The negative scenario assumes that this fall will be 7%, and optimistic at 6%, respectively, the forecast.
In the case when oil prices will be $ 50 per barrel, the level of real wages in 2015-2016 may be reduced by 10%. Such a recession will lead to a sharp increase in unemployment - up to 5.5% in 2015 and up to 8% in 2017. The forecast says that over the past 3 years the debt burden on the population has increased significantly due to the dramatically changing credit conditions. Such a situation may lead to the complete bankruptcy of debtors.
As for the salaries of Russiansthen they will also decrease by 9-10% in 2015 and by 3-5% in 2016. Such a decline is associated with constant inflationary fluctuations, a general deterioration of the economy and the untimely indexation of salaries of public sector employees. Experts from the Institute of Economics say that the fall in the revenue side and the lack of demand for consumer loans will slightly reduce consumer turnover: by 10% in the current run and by 4-5% in the next turn. From the forecast it can be concluded that the volume of paid services to the population will fall by two times.
Regarding investments, their number will also drop sharply, the approximate figure is not yet known, but HSE experts suggest that it will be 15.2%. Of course, it is difficult to judge what will happen in the future, maybe it will not be so deplorable. For example, judging by the report provided by Rosstat, in March of this year the fall in investment in fixed assets slowed down to 6% for the quarter, although economists had forecast up to 7%. At the end of the year, a decline of 12.7% is expected, and the Ministry of Economic Development expects as much as 13.7%.
2017 - the period of growth
Nevertheless, even with such calculations, 2017 will be the growth of the economy: with the price of oil up to $ 80, an increase of 2.1% is expected, and if the cost stays in place - up to 0.5%. Against this background, wages will increase, retail trade will resume, and in an optimistic scenario, investment will increase.
Approximately such a statement was made by the President of the Russian Federation. He understands that the rise of the economy will take a lot of time, but still the ruble will strengthen over time and market growth will begin. All this will take about two years, said Vladimir Vladimirovich.
I agree with the head of state and the Central Bank, as well as experts from the Fitch analytical center. The growth of the economy by 2017, in their opinion, will be more than 6%, but only by this year, and not earlier.
However, such a change in GDP growth will not help avoid a budget crisis, HSE responds. Even if the budget deficit is somehow financed from sovereign funds, the Reserve Fund will end by 2016.
The duration of the recession is not defined.
Even if oil prices rise again to $ 80 per barrel, this will not solve all problems. The economy in 2015-2016 will not be so rapidly falling, but its growth will not be so big - only 2%. And during the next fall in oil prices, sovereign funds will be exhausted, a budget deficit will occur and the economy will again fly to the bottom, economists of the HSE warn. These few years will be very difficult for an emerging medium and small business.
Such arguments are ambiguous, says Vladimir Ukolov (professor of the Moscow International Higher Business School MIRBIS). After all, every business is structurally different from each other: one fall of the economy will be akin to collapse, another will play into the hands.
At this stage, small and medium businesses are not so significant for the country's economy, but still a protracted crisis and the unwillingness of the government to carry out reforms will lead to the fact that this branch will completely disappear.Therefore, management should try to increase the segment of small and medium-sized businesses several times over the coming years.