Forecast for Russia for 2017
Judging by the presented forecast from leading experts of the country, in 2017 a slight upturn will begin, which can be seen by ordinary people. Of course, the forecast for Russia for 2017 may slightly change, but all citizens can hope that the wave of crisis will calm down, and the standard of living will return to the same direction.
Economic growth analysts are tied to the increase in oil prices, which will lead to a positive trend in GDP indicators and a slowdown in inflation. But even with such a rosy development, experts prefer not to ignore the implementation of the pessimistic scenario and the new financial turmoil in the country.
The crisis situation of the modern economy was provoked by several factors. First of all, it is the deterioration of political relations with developed countries, as well as the introduction of sanctions in 2014.
The results were deplorable for domestic business - many entrepreneurs were deprived of cheap financial resources, which were previously the main levers driving the economy up.In addition, the debt burden increased, and available sources for refinancing from many Russian companies disappeared, after which they lost their former financial stability.
Even the most developed oil tycoons suspended their oil production activities and turned to the state for support. Objects of the banking sector also fell under the “distribution”. They could not cope with their debt obligations and eventually declared themselves bankrupt.
The next key point that influenced the Russian economy was the collapse of the oil market. Note that the import of "black gold" allowed to perform the lion's share of foreign exchange transactions. After the cost of a barrel fell sharply (in mid-2014, the price per barrel was $ 115, and in early 2016 - $ 35- $ 40) problems started filling the public sector and worsening situation on the foreign exchange market.
Vice Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich noted that the sanctions against Russia reduced the economic indicators by 0.5% in 2015, another 3% fall on the decline in oil prices.
The negative situation in the external environment also led to a decline in the state’s economy.Now, all structural distortions, as well as rare reforms that are urgently needed to maintain stability in the country, have become clearly visible. Social standards were threatened, and Russia went to them for several years in a row. The high level of inflation led to the fact that the incomes of the population began to decline sharply.
Despite all this, the economic outlook for 2017 foresees an improvement in external factors for the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the steady growth of the domestic economy and it will return to the same direction.
What will happen in 2017
Some analysts are confident that Western sanctions will be lifted in the summer of 2016. European countries have long lost their unity in this matter, and this means that renewal for a new period may not happen.
As for the oil market, a slight but positive change is also expected here. A gradual reduction in contributions to oil production will lead to a decrease in supply, namely, it is responsible for regulating prices. Thus, "black gold" according to experts, will cost about $ 60 per barrel.
Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin sees benefits in such trends for the Russian economy.If the presented forecast comes true, then the economic indicators will go to zero or even slightly rise, the official said. As soon as the government begins to carefully spend reserves and invest only in certain sectors of the economy, the country's financial situation will gradually stabilize.
Some GDP growth in 2017 (by 0.9%) is foreseen by experts from Morgan Stanley. Optimizing the external background will allow the Central Bank to slightly lower the key rate, which could affect the cheapening of loans for the real economic sector. Note that representatives of the investment bank have already published forecasts for 2017. In them, they foresaw economic growth to 1.7%, but after the next collapse in oil prices, they were forced to reconsider their calculations.
Leading experts from Standart & Poor’s are confident that domestic GDP in 2017 will grow by 1% only when taking into account stabilization of oil prices (up to $ 45 per barrel).
As noted, the well-known financier George Soros Russia did not immediately cope with the prevailing economic crisis. In order to improve the situation, it must develop and implement various reforms, otherwise by 2017 the country will simply not be able to fulfill all its obligations and recognize default.
Forecast from the International Monetary Fund
In early 2016, the IMF specialists published an extensive review called the World Economic Outlook Update. In this document, readers could see data on the development of the global economy for the next few years. According to these data, Russia should not hope for a positive dynamic of the economy either in 2016 or in 2017. By the end of the year, the country's GDP will fall by 1%, which means that economic indicators will continue to fall.
Note that in the last report from the IMF, experts predicted a fall of only 0.6%, and in 2017, according to calculations, the first positive changes were to take place. However, after considering additional factors, analysts changed their minds.
European Commission Forecast
The European Commission does not provide final data on the Russian economy in 2017. But in the report for 2015, they calculated a drop in GDP to 3.7%. It is not strange, these calculations were confirmed. In 2016, this indicator will continue to decline by 0.5% and only with the arrival of 2017 a slight dynamics is possible.
Based on this forecast, in the coming year, the country's economy may come out of recession and rise to 1%.To do this, it is necessary for oil prices to rise, and the degree of tension that is observed worldwide. As for inflation, in 2017 it should fall to 6%.
Possible political risks
When making a forecast for 2017, political factors are also taken into account. The deterioration in the economic sphere led to a sharp increase in Protestant movements. The Committee of Civil Initiatives noted that it was exactly the take-off in 2015. But, despite the instability among the population, the country's leadership continues to fulfill its social obligations and in parallel is looking for ways to fill the budget.
Already this year, residents of Russia will choose the new composition of the State Duma, but experts are confident that this factor will not be able to ease the tension that is growing among Russians. An obvious confirmation of the fact that the fall of the economy is fueling a protest mood, was another innovation - the “Plato” system. It was she who forced the local carriers to resort to mass actions in order to defend their interests.
But these are isolated cases and in fact they do not carry serious consequences. In general, citizens of the Russian Federation are sympathetic to the actions of the government and are waiting for all economic difficulties to be left behind.Most of them support the power, because they believe that only she can bring order to the country and will find the best ways to solve their crisis.
The violation of the political stability of the country in 2017 is possible only if the economy plummets. This can happen if the price of oil drops to $ 20 a barrel. Such a situation is unlikely to play into the hands of the Russian government, protest organizations that will reach wide sections of the population will begin to “float up” from everywhere. Massive clashes may begin.