Dollar exchange rate forecast for January 2018
In order to make a forecast of the dollar exchange rate for January 2018, analysts are studying not only stock exchange reports, but also world news. Thus, the unstable situation in Spain, due to the desire of the Catalans to gain independence, weakened the single European currency, but supported the US dollar.
Dollar exchange rate in Russia. Expert forecasts
The next couple of weeks, experts predict the stability of the national currency. This is primarily due to carry trade investments - against the background of low inflation in Russia, players expect a reduction in the interest rate, which increases interest in transactions. The desire to earn quickly on securities rates as a result of a reduction in the rate of the Central Bank supports the Russian ruble and restrains the growth of the rate of other foreign currencies. But, as experts predict, this will not last long. Most likely in November, at the end of the tax period, the national currency will begin to weaken.And if the single European currency is under pressure due to the events in Spain, then the US dollar will take advantage of the situation and begin to grow. Experts assure that while in the Old World the question of the withdrawal of Catalonia from the Spanish kingdom is being resolved, and Madrid is preventing it, the euro will fluctuate, and the dollar will rise.
The dynamics of the dollar since the beginning of the year:
|1st of February||60,2421|
|22nd of June||59,9716|
As can be seen from the table, since the beginning of the year there has been a slight fluctuation in the official dollar rate in the range of 2.2 rubles, without strong jumps in dynamics.
Forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation
In early autumn, the Ministry of Finance of Russia published an economic forecast for the period until 2035. The ministry calculated development options for three scenarios:
- In the base, the projected value of the US currency: 64.8 rubles. (2017-2020), 71.5 rubles (2021-2025), 77.1 rubles (2026-2030) and 82.5 rubles. (2031-2035);
- in the conservative: 68.4 rubles. in the first three years and 84.2 rubles. in 2031–2035 (financiers associate this option with a decline in the price of Urals oil and a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy);
- in the target, the most positive, the dollar in the years 2031-2035 will cost 75.6 rubles. For such a development, Russia's GDP should increase by 3.3% annually.
In the meantime, according to analysts, the Russian ruble needs raw material support. So, Sergey Korolev, who holds the position of the head of sales department of Zerich Capital Management IK, announced a possible reduction of the ruble / dollar pair to the level of 52: “It is worth noting the downward trend, volatility is still high, but the cross rate is far from the most easily predictable tool on the market, and the “New Year races” of December 2014 are unlikely to see". One should not wait for a sharp jump in the ruble / dollar pair from January 1 of the next year - no forecast considers such a prospect in the near future.
According to the latest news, the cost of a barrel of Brents oil rose slightly, but still does not reach its highs. In North America, reserves and fuel extraction have significantly decreased, but at the same time, the oil asset has also fallen in price, which does not allow for an increase in quotations. Now, a barrel of black gold is asking for $ 57, with some fluctuations in the direction of decline.
The growth of the US currency may be affected by the approval of the US budget for the next year. Against the background of news from overseas, the yield on long-term bonds rose to 2.34%.At the same time, the forecast of analysts still links the decline in the dollar with the recovery in oil prices.